By John Tully
You'd think that the 'economic experts' would have been just a little guarded in their optimistic forecasts before the collapse of the 'Asian miracle'. After all, capitalism has suffered no less than 22 periodic crises of over-production since 1825. Even if they ignore the Marxist analysis of the inevitability of such cyclical depressions, surely the law of averages would lead them to fear such a crisis in the last years of the century!
But then capitalism and its apologists are notoriously short-sighted. And besides, they were too busy preaching the 'death of socialism' to take a close look at economic reality. In the December edition of the French monthly Le Monde Diplomatique, writer Christian Brie examined what the experts were saying on the eve of the Asian collapse.
'South East Asia?: "The most dynamic region on the planet" (Le Monde, 9 January 1996. Indonesia?: "One of the most attractive economies of Asia for foreign investors" (Les Echos, 30 July 1996; a "more and more and more attractive" country...(International Herald Tribune, 10 April 1996...' (Although the latter paper did admit it was "increasingly rotten"). The French paper L'Usine Nouvelle considered that Indonesia represented only "a moderate risk for investors" but urged them not to be late to take advantage of the pickings.
Brie continued his round-up: 'Thailand?: "An eldorado...an effervescent market" (L'Investir 3 February 1997); well-noted by Moody's, the (economic) ratings firm. Malaysia?: "an insolent success" (Les Echos, 14 April 1997); "a real locomotive (which) will become one of the 15 most powerful world economic powers within 15 years" (Usine Nouvelle, 2 May 1996). The country projected "to become, like Singapore, a high tech paradise" (Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 October 1996). "Explosive Malaysia, which thinks big, really big...the happiest place in Asia" (Wall Street Journal, 12 July 1996).'
All in all, Malaysia was, in the words of US ambassador quoted in the Far Eastern Economic Review, "the cherished child of the investors". This was confirmed by Credit Risk International which confirmed that "on a scale of 1 to 7 measuring the risk of countries...Malaysia was classified 1, minimum risk in April 1997" (Les Echos, 14 April 1997). Fleming Investment Management concurred, claiming in February 1997 that "the Asian miracle is not finished".